The Empire is Striking Back
Dear Friends -
I am SUPER excited about an upcoming expedition I’m planning. In just a few weeks, I’m heading down to Grenada. Yep, that Grenada. Grenada is a small island just off the coast of South America. From a birding perspective, those are three key elements. Islands behave differently than larger landmasses. Far southern latitude means that I’m inevitably going to see all kinds of new creatures that don’t make it this far north. And there will be ocean birds. Lots of them. Landlubbers like me don’t have this opportunity so often. Did I mention I’m super excited???
And there’s more! For me, Grenada has semi-mythical tones to it. 40-odd years ago, when I was a wee lad just beginning to take an interest in global affairs, a group of Cuban-backed coup plotters took over the small island nation. I dare say most Americans at the time (certainly since) couldn’t locate Grenada on a map, but it was actually quite a big deal. There was a medical school there with about 600 American students. The fear - or perhaps excuse - was that these students would be taken hostage. Remember, this was in 1983 just after the Iranian revolution and the hostage-taking that lasted for 444 days. The model was clear. Moreover, this was the height of the Reagan-era Cold War. Grenada was another “domino,” and so President Reagan sent in the Navy. Within days, the island was liberated.
Click here to watch today’s Interrupted Walk video. It’s still domestic.
Sometimes it’s hard to remember how clear the world was in the 1980’s. Us and Them. West vs. East. The US against the Soviets. The Wall. The global map was easily divisible into two colors, and there were near-constant conflicts where each side tried to expand its percentage. Some “battles” made sense, like the US trying to deploy missiles in Western Europe or the Soviets trying to do the same in Cuba. Others, like Grenada, seemed more token. But we all had a clear framework for understanding these contests, and that’s what I want to explore today.
Iran in 1978 was secular(ish), modern(izing), and a normal member of the community of nations. The Shah’s regime could also be brutal, repressive, and was non-democratic - just like all its non-Israeli neighbors. Since the revolution in 1979, things have been a bit different. Most importantly for today’s purposes, Iran has been steadily building an empire of influence throughout the Middle East. And for reasons that escape me, these clients don’t seem to be as clearly acknowledged as Soviet-dominated East Germany or Bulgaria or Czechoslovakia. Just to give a quick sense of perspective, here’s a list of conflict zones where Iran deploys some combination of personnel, materiel, and lots and lots of cash:
Iraq
Syria
Yemen
Gaza
The West Bank
Lebanon
Ukraine
And with no need for a tinfoil hat, I would be stunned if Iran weren’t providing funding and logistical support to the various “organic” protest movements roiling the US, Western Europe, Canada, and Australia.
In the 1980’s, Reagan rather famously explained US Grand Strategy vis-a-vis the Soviets, “We win. You lose.” Not long after, that’s precisely what happened. Most wonderfully, it happened in a non-military way, with the Soviet Union succumbing to what Marx would have called a crisis of internal contradictions. Since then, the world is a vastly different place. Countries have realigned allegiances based on economic interest, desire for democratic norms and institutions, and geographic necessity. And yes, there is (of course) still conflict but not in the global sense of competing ideologies, East vs. West.
There are various explanations for Iran’s behavior today: geopolitical, religious, etc. Ciphering the mullahs’ intentions is well beyond me. But what I can see very clearly is that Iranian policy is what sustains and exacerbates all the conflict zones listed above. Military advisers, money, equipment, and diplomatic cover all fuel these on-going messes. It’s equally clear that none of these issues will be resolved absent the same kind of change that characterized the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The gazillion dollar question is whether that changes occurs or not, and if so, whether it occurs in the peaceful way that Reagan and Bush dismantled the Soviet Union or whether it is more similar to the gunboat diplomacy used in Grenada. Or perhaps there will be an internal uprising, and the Iranian people will remove today’s regime.
As for understanding today’s conflicts, keep your eye on Iran. That’s the center of gravity. There is plenty of disfunction internal to the various states in the region, and it’s overly sanguine to say that if Iran suddenly made nice, all the Middle East conflicts would instantly resolve. Nor is it accurate to say that it wouldn’t help. A lot. A whole lot. Until and unless there’s regime change in Tehran, we’re not going to see stability. And in the Middle East, stability is the most precious resource - because it’s the rarest. Don’t be surprised if people start making plans to lock it in.
Be Grounded. Fly High.
The Avian Rebbe